Dayhoff Soundtrack: One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS nomination of Merrick Garland has been written by @natesilver538

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS nomination of Merrick Garland has been written by @natesilver538

One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS nomination of Merrick Garland has been written by @natesilver538

FiveThirtyEight: Republicans Could Do a Lot Worse Than Merrick Garland under President Clinton — or President Trump by NATE SILVER

http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/2016/03/one-of-lucid-analyses-of-scotus.html

Labels: Pres 20071111 conf POTUS and SCOTUS, Supreme Court of the US, US Congress Senate Judiciary Committee - See more at: http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/2016/03/one-of-lucid-analyses-of-scotus.html#sthash.o0G9QjCH.dpuf

March 16, 2016

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Kevin E. Dayhoff, March 22, 2016 - I do not think that I am going to write about this - so what the heck... I have written a great deal about the local, state and federal judiciary in the past, including covering conferences on the courts and its historic relationship with the presidency. So if I end-up writing an article, please feel free to throw this comment in my face. Whatever.

Although one cannot fully predict the decisions and judicial temperament of an individual once a justice takes a seat on the bench, all indications are that Merrick Garland would be a fine justice.

It is a basic in politics that if you go nuclear with your initial response and approach, it denies you a fall-back position. It is a basic that if you are going to undermine an opponent’s position, you do not telegraph your intentions.

The approach of the current Republican leadership towards appointing a justice to replace Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States Antonin Gregory Scalia, 1986-2016, is amateurish at best.

And at this point, if things continue in its current trajectory, the next president will be President Clinton. And she will have the benefit of a Democrat controlled Senate because if things continue the way they are going, the Senate will flip to the Democrats in the next election.

So - this might be the most wrong-headed political approach towards governance in memory - maybe since President F.D. Roosevelt tried to pack the court.... Bring back the monarchy.

Post script: If the Senate moves 11 seats to the Democrats, President Obama could very easily be narrowly confirmed as a justice of the Supreme Court - all as courtesy of the current leadership of the Republican Party. SMH. For me it is a win-win. I get to write about it.

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KMS - at this point, from the viewpoint of a political scientist that has written about politics for 45-years; all indications are that the Senate will swing to the Democrats in the next election. Trump will not prevail against Clinton. If I were a conspiratorialist, I would suggest that Trump's candidacy was brought forward by a secret cabal of Democrat party elites. LOL See: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Related: The Onion - OMG - too funny. Thx @JustinWolfers for sharing @natesilver538:

http://www.theonion.com/article/nate-silver-defends-torture-methods-used-make-elec-52597

“Nate Silver Defends Torture Methods Used To Make Election Projections.” True story… I have written prediction papers. In the interest of full disclosure, I did not use the dog approach… Just saying

Related: NPR - “Ginsburg and Scalia: 'Best Buddies'” updated Fe. 17, 2016 http://www.npr.org/2016/02/15/466848775/scalia-ginsburg-opera-commemorates-sparring-supreme-court-friendship

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Meanwhile, on March 16, 2016, Nate Silver wrote, in part:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that Republicans won’t hold hearings on Judge Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. If McConnell follows through and makes everyone wait until next year, he and his party will be taking a serious risk. The political situation for Republicans could get a lot worse — and McConnell might no longer be in charge of the Senate.

The logic of this isn’t that complicated. Right now, the most likely person to become the next president is Hillary Clinton, who is on the verge of wrapping up the Democratic nomination. The second most likely person is Donald Trump. His path to the Republican nomination is more tenuous than Clinton’s path to the Democratic one. But Trump had a successful day of elections on Tuesday — and if it isn’t obvious how Trump will get to 1,237 delegates, it’s even less obvious how anyone else will become the Republican nominee.

Read more here: One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS nomination of Merrick Garland has been written by @natesilver538 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-could-do-a-lot-worse-than-merrick-garland-under-president-clinton-or-president-trump/

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