One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS nomination of Merrick
Garland has been written by @natesilver538
FiveThirtyEight: Republicans Could Do a Lot Worse Than
Merrick Garland under President Clinton — or President Trump by NATE SILVER
March 16, 2016
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Kevin E. Dayhoff, March 22, 2016 - I do not think that I am
going to write about this - so what the heck... I have written a great deal
about the local, state and federal judiciary in the past, including covering
conferences on the courts and its historic relationship with the presidency. So
if I end-up writing an article, please feel free to throw this comment in my
face. Whatever.
Although one cannot fully predict the decisions and judicial
temperament of an individual once a justice takes a seat on the bench, all
indications are that Merrick Garland would be a fine justice.
It is a basic in politics that if you go nuclear with your
initial response and approach, it denies you a fall-back position. It is a
basic that if you are going to undermine an opponent’s position, you do not
telegraph your intentions.
The approach of the current Republican leadership towards
appointing a justice to replace Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the
United States Antonin Gregory Scalia, 1986-2016, is amateurish at best.
And at this point, if things continue in its current
trajectory, the next president will be President Clinton. And she will have the
benefit of a Democrat controlled Senate because if things continue the way they
are going, the Senate will flip to the Democrats in the next election.
So - this might be the most wrong-headed political approach
towards governance in memory - maybe since President F.D. Roosevelt tried to
pack the court.... Bring back the monarchy.
Post script: If the Senate moves 11 seats to the Democrats,
President Obama could very easily be narrowly confirmed as a justice of the
Supreme Court - all as courtesy of the current leadership of the Republican
Party. SMH. For me it is a win-win. I get to write about it.
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KMS - at this point, from the viewpoint of a political
scientist that has written about politics for 45-years; all indications are
that the Senate will swing to the Democrats in the next election. Trump will
not prevail against Clinton. If I were a conspiratorialist, I would suggest
that Trump's candidacy was brought forward by a secret cabal of Democrat party
elites. LOL See: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Related: The Onion - OMG - too funny. Thx @JustinWolfers for
sharing @natesilver538:
“Nate Silver Defends Torture Methods Used To Make Election Projections.” True
story… I have written prediction papers. In the interest of full disclosure, I
did not use the dog approach… Just saying
Related: NPR - “Ginsburg and Scalia: 'Best Buddies'” updated
Fe. 17, 2016
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/15/466848775/scalia-ginsburg-opera-commemorates-sparring-supreme-court-friendship
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Meanwhile, on March 16, 2016, Nate Silver wrote, in part:
Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell said
Wednesday that Republicans won’t hold hearings on Judge Merrick Garland,
President Obama’s nominee to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court. If
McConnell follows through and makes everyone wait until next year, he and his
party will be taking a serious risk. The political situation for Republicans
could get a lot worse — and McConnell might no longer be in charge of the
Senate.
The logic of this
isn’t that complicated. Right now, the most likely person to become the next
president is Hillary Clinton, who is on
the verge of wrapping up the Democratic nomination. The second most likely
person is Donald Trump. His path to the Republican nomination is more
tenuous than Clinton’s path to the Democratic one. But Trump had a successful
day of elections on Tuesday — and if it isn’t obvious how Trump will
get to 1,237 delegates, it’s even less obvious how anyone else will become the
Republican nominee.
Read more here: One of the lucid analyses of the SCOTUS
nomination of Merrick Garland has been written by @natesilver538 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-could-do-a-lot-worse-than-merrick-garland-under-president-clinton-or-president-trump/
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