Dayhoff Soundtrack: World Russia

Showing posts with label World Russia. Show all posts

Saturday, June 24, 2017

The Hill: Dems push leaders to talk less about Russia

The Hill: Dems push leaders to talk less about Russia

June 24, 2017

Frustrated Democrats hoping to elevate their election fortunes have a resounding message for party leaders: Stop talking so much about Russia.

Democratic leaders have been beating the drum this year over the ongoing probes into the Trump administration’s potential ties to Moscow, taking every opportunity to highlight the saga and forcing floor votes designed to uncover any business dealings the president might have with Russian figures.

But rank-and-file Democrats say the Russia-Trump narrative is simply a non-issue with district voters, who are much more worried about bread-and-butter economic concerns like jobs, wages and the cost of education and healthcare.

Read the full story here

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Kevin Dayhoff Soundtrack: http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/ = http://www.kevindayhoff.net/ Kevin Dayhoff Art: http://kevindayhoffart.blogspot.com/ or http://kevindayhoffart.com/ = http://www.kevindayhoff.com/ Kevin Dayhoff Westminster: http://kevindayhoffwestgov-net.blogspot.com/ or http://www.westgov.net/ = www.kevindayhoff.org Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevindayhoff Twitpic: http://twitpic.com/photos/kevindayhoff Kevin Dayhoff's The New Bedford Herald: http://kbetrue.livejournal.com/ = www.newbedfordherald.net Explore Carroll: www.explorecarroll.com The Tentacle: www.thetentacle.com

Monday, January 02, 2017

Breaking – this just in: The DNC has officially claimed that Russia is responsible for Mariah Carey's performance. 2Jan2017

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Sunday, April 12, 2015

U.S. to file complaint over Russian fighter intercept | National News - WBAL Home

U.S. to file complaint over Russian fighter intercept | National News - WBAL Home:

(CNN) —After a Russian fighter jet intercepted a U.S. reconnaissance plane in an "unsafe and unprofessional manner" earlier this week, the United States is complaining to Moscow about the incident.

On Tuesday, a U.S. RC-135U was flying over the Baltic Sea when it was intercepted by a Russian SU-27 Flanker. The Pentagon said the incident occurred in international airspace north of Poland.

Read more: http://www.wbaltv.com/national/us-to-file-complaint-over-russian-fighter-intercept/32321444?utm_campaign=WBALTV&utm_content=5529ee0004d301088e000005&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=trueAnthem:+New+Content

'via Blog this'

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Sunday, May 25, 2014

Ukrainians remember 1944 deportation of Crimea’s Tartars

http://www.washingtonpost.com/posttv/national/ukrainians-remember-1944-deportation-of-crimeas-tartars/2014/05/18/44ba65d2-de50-11e3-a837-8835df6c12c4_video.html

May 18, 2014 11:50 AM EDT — Ukrainians in Kiev and Lviv gathered in support of Crimea's Tartars on the eve of the anniversary of mass deportations by Stalin in 1944.

(Reuters) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/eastern-ukrainians-rap-kiev-in-talks/2014/05/17/e0307ec8-de20-11e3-a837-8835df6c12c4_story.html

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Saturday, March 22, 2014

Washington Post News Alert: Russian forces break into Ukrainian base

Russian forces break into Ukrainian base

Russian forces used at least two armored vehicles to break into the Ukrainian air base in Belbek after an hours-long tense standoff at the gate. Gunfire and explosions could be heard as the vehicles broke down the gate where Ukrainians had been refusing to allow them entry.

Read more at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/monitors-set-to-deploy-to-ukraine-to-try-to-contain-crisis/2014/03/22/742e4898-b1a4-11e3-a49e-76adc9210f19_story.html

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Sunday, March 16, 2014

News from The Hill Exit polls show lopsided results in Crimea referendum

News from The Hill

Exit polls show lopsided results in Crimea referendum

By Peter Schroeder

The White House on Sunday was quick to dismiss a referendum that showed overwhelming support in Crimea for seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia.

Exit polls showed a vast majority of voters Sunday backed secession, but the Obama administration reiterated that it and the global community viewed the results as illegitimate, and the result of Russian intimidation.

Read the story here.

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Thursday, December 26, 2013

Mikhail Kalashnikov, Creator of AK-47, Dies at 94 - NYTimes.com

Mikhail Kalashnikov, Creator of AK-47, Dies at 94 - NYTimes.com: "Lt. Gen. Mikhail T. Kalashnikov with a model of the AK-47 in 1997. By C. J. CHIVERS Published: December 23, 2013"

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/24/world/europe/mikhail-kalashnikov-creator-of-soviet-era-ak-47-weapon-is-dead-at-age-94.html

Lt. Gen. Mikhail T. Kalashnikov, the arms designer credited by the Soviet Union with creating the AK-47, the first in a series of rifles and machine guns that would indelibly associate his name with modern war and become the most abundant firearms ever made, died on Monday in Izhevsk, the capital of the Russian republic of Udmurtia, where he lived. He was 94... http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/24/world/europe/mikhail-kalashnikov-creator-of-soviet-era-ak-47-weapon-is-dead-at-age-94.html

'via Blog this'

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Friday, April 06, 2012

Russian Spy | Close to Obama Leadership | Anna Chapman | The Daily Caller

Russian Spy | Close to Obama Leadership | Anna Chapman | The Daily Caller:

Russian spy got ‘close enough’ to Obama leadership 04/03/2012

by Sarah Hoffmann

"FBI Assistant Director for Counterintelligence Frank Figliuzzi told the BBC that in 2010, a Russian spy was getting too close for comfort with a sitting member of President Barack Obama’s cabinet. In an interview aired Monday night, Figliuzzi said that the spy was “closer and closer to higher and higher ranking leadership,” using a “honey trap,” until the FBI felt intervention was needed and a group of ten spies were arrested and deported.

Among the deportees was the red-haired Anna Chapman, portrayed in many media outlets as a seductive femme fatale. " ... http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/03/russian-spy-got-close-enough-to-obama-leadership/

'via Blog this'

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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Haaretz: Shostakovich's muse By Noam Ben Zeev

Published 02.04.07

Shostakovich's muse

By Noam Ben Zeev http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/shostakovich-s-muse-1.217242

In March 1953, a sigh of collective relief swept over the streets of the Soviet Union: Joseph Stalin was dead. Among the millions of people who felt that their lives were returned to them was the man who had been considered the Russian national composer until he fell out of favor with the regime, eight years earlier, Dmitri Shostakovich (1906-1975).

His Ninth Symphony, which he wrote to celebrate the USSR's victory in World War II, was radiant, full of life, almost "light," but it infuriated Stalin. The Party committees declared it to go against the will of the Soviet people, and denunciated the composer with the label that was a death sentence for any artist: "formalistic."

Shostakovich was boycotted. The eight years during which the commissions dried up and the performances of his work ceased, and in which he was dismissed from his position as professor of composition at the Moscow Conservatory, brought him to the brink of poverty and to thoughts of suicide. It seems that he was not immune to the curse: Beethoven had been the last to write nine symphonies, and in the 130 years since his death, no major composer had succeeded in completing a 10th one.

In December of 1953, however, the curse was lifted. The conservatory's huge Bolshoi Auditorium, sparkling with thousands of lights and overflowing with colorful bouquets, was packed with an audience that had come to celebrate the composer's return to his hometown, with his new symphony, his 10th. The enormous, excited crowd applauded the Leningrad Philharmonic, under the baton of one of the period's great conductors, Evgeny Mravinsky. And Shostakovich, bursting with pride, took his seat of honor…

http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-s-end/shostakovich-s-muse-1.217242

[20070204 Shostakovichs muse By Noam Ben Zeev]

Haaretz: Shostakovich's muse By Noam Ben Zeev

++++++++

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Monday, July 25, 2011

Putin's Army

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG2XV2n9efc

Called "Putin's Army", it features a video of a blonde student called Diana who struts along Moscow's streets in high heels and a black suit before scrawling "I will tear my clothes off for Putin" on a white top in red lipstick and starting to undo her clothes.

July 18, 2011

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Sunday, November 07, 2010

Katakamidotcom News Indonesia: Photostream : Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vi...

Katakamidotcom News Indonesia: Photostream : Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vi...: "Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev visits Kunashiri Island, one of four islands known as the Southern Kuriles in Russia and Northern Ter..." http://katakamidotcomnewsindonesia.blogspot.com/2010/11/photostream-russian-president-dmitry.html

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Saturday, April 10, 2010

Polish leader, 96 others dead in Russia jet crash

MOSCOW — Polish President Lech Kaczynski and some of the country's highest military and civilian leaders died on Saturday when the presidential plane crashed as it came in for a landing in thick fog in western Russia, killing 97, officials said.

(AP) Polish leader, 96 others dead in Russia jet crash By JIM HEINTZ (AP)

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVF6779laLoQqf-UdYjLw7H5Bw-AD9F08V5G0

Russian and Polish officials said there were no survivors on the 26-year-old Tupolev, which was taking the president, his wife and staff to events marking the 70th anniversary of the massacre in Katyn forest of thousands of Polish officers by Soviet secret police.

The crash devastated the upper echelons of Poland's political and military establishments. On board were the army chief of staff, national bank president, deputy foreign minister, army chaplain, head of the National Security Office, deputy parliament speaker, civil rights commissioner and at least two presidential aides and three lawmakers, the Polish foreign ministry said.

Although initial signs pointed to an accident with no indication of foul play, the death of a Polish president and much of the Polish state and defense establishment in Russia en route to commemorating one of the saddest events in Poland's long, complicated history with Russia, was laden with tragic irony.

Read the entire article:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iVF6779laLoQqf-UdYjLw7H5Bw-AD9F08V5G0

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Polish President Lech Kaczynski 'in plane crash'

Polish President Lech Kaczynski 'in plane crash' http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/8612825.stm

BreakingNews

Update: 87 people dead in Warsaw -Smolesk plane crash - TASS via Reuters

HeadlinesNewz

Polish president's plane crashes in Russia: official: SMOLENSK, Russia (Reuters) - A plane carrying Polish preside... http://bit.ly/8Z8OWt

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Monday, March 29, 2010

New York Times: Moscow Subway Explosion Kills at Least 20

Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Mon, March 29, 2010 -- 12:55 AM ET
-----

Moscow Subway Explosion Kills at Least 20

A huge explosion during rush hour in a subway station in
central Moscow on Monday morning killed more than 20 people,
officials said.

The cause of the blast was not immediately clear, but it
raised fears of a renewal of terrorism in Moscow. The subway
system, one of the world's most extensive, had been subjected
to attacks related to the separatist war in Chechnya in the
early part of the last decade.

Officials said the explosion occurred at 7:50 a.m. in the
Lubyanka subway station, killing people both on the platform
and in an incoming train. Numerous others were injured.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

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Monday, November 09, 2009

Financial Times: Grime and punishment By John Thornhill

Financial Times: Grime and punishment By John Thornhill Published: October 30 2009

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/a025dd92-c4e3-11de-8d54-00144feab49a.html

Click here for a larger image: http://twitpic.com/ov2qe

“But modern-day Russia poses particular challenges to the fiction writer: everyday life appears so outlandish, at times, that it would be near-impossible to imagine it if it did not already exist. In a country that can elect to parliament a former KGB officer accused by the British police of murdering a British citizen by slipping radioactive poison into his tea, it must be a hard job for a fiction writer to know where reality ends and fantasy begins. Even the most mundane event can seemingly be explained only by convoluted conspiracy theory. Even the most fantastical event appears commonplace. Truth is so enmeshed in fiction that fiction has had to accelerate to outstrip it.” - Grime and punishment By John Thornhill

http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/2009/11/financial-times-grime-and-punishment-by.html

Financial Times tells it like it is (about modern Russian fiction)

“The death of Russian literature has been declared many times. Russian poetry was supposed to have perished tragically early, interred with the body of Alexander Pushkin in 1837 following his fateful duel. Then along came Anna Akhmatova, Boris Pasternak, Osip Mandelstam and Marina Tsvetaeva, an astonishing quartet of poets who revived and reinvented the genre in an explosion of creativity in the early 20th century.

“Epic Russian novels, meanwhile, were pronounced dead after Fyodor Dostoevsky and Leo Tolstoy. But in describing the brutalities of the second world war and the gulag, Vasily Grossman and Alexander Solzhenitsyn proved worthy heirs of those 19th-century masters.

“Once again it has become fashionable to argue that Russian fiction is over, buried under the rubble of the former Soviet Union. Critics have decreed that no classic works of Russian literature have emerged in the past 18 years.

“That may be true, but green shoots are now pushing through the fallen masonry. Four new Russian novels reveal flashes of fabulous writing, at times reminiscent of the wild imaginings of Mikhail Bulgakov, the dystopic visions of Yevgeny Zamyatin or the gentle humanity of Anton Chekhov. Russian literature has long ago left Socialist Realism panting behind – now it is striding out in the company of Capitalist Surrealism.

“But modern-day Russia poses particular challenges to the fiction writer: everyday life appears so outlandish, at times, that it would be near-impossible to imagine it if it did not already exist. In a country that can elect to parliament a former KGB officer accused by the British police of murdering a British citizen by slipping radioactive poison into his tea, it must be a hard job for a fiction writer to know where reality ends and fantasy begins. Even the most mundane event can seemingly be explained only by convoluted conspiracy theory. Even the most fantastical event appears commonplace. Truth is so enmeshed in fiction that fiction has had to accelerate to outstrip it.”

[…]

Read the rest of the article here: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/a025dd92-c4e3-11de-8d54-00144feab49a.html

20091030 sdsom FT Grime and punishment By John Thornhill

Hat Tip: http://kevindayhoff.tumblr.com/post/237841951/but-modern-day-russia-poses-particular-challenges

Financial Times on Modern Russian fiction: Grime and punishment By John Thornhill http://tinyurl.com/y8smw6j http://twitpic.com/ov2qe

http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/2009/11/financial-times-grime-and-punishment-by.html http://tinyurl.com/y8smw6j

Art Library Writers Writing, World Russia

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Kevin Dayhoff Soundtrack: http://www.kevindayhoff.net/ Kevin Dayhoff Art: http://www.kevindayhoffart.com/ Kevin Dayhoff Westminster: http://www.westgov.net/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevindayhoff Twitpic: http://twitpic.com/photos/kevindayhoff Kevin Dayhoff's The New Bedford Herald: http://kbetrue.livejournal.com/

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Shostakovich 7th Symphony

Shostakovich 7th Symphony

Retrieved June 17, 2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKOZEW9SfdU

Valery Gergiev conducts Shostakovich's 7th Symphony which salutes the sacrifices made during the Great Patriotic War as survivors of the Siege of Leningrad describe the first performance of this great symphony

20090617 Shostakovich 7th Symphony

Kevin Dayhoff Soundtrack: http://www.kevindayhoff.net/ Kevin Dayhoff Art: http://www.kevindayhoffart.com/ Kevin Dayhoff Westminster: http://www.westgov.net/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevindayhoff Twitpic: http://twitpic.com/photos/kevindayhoff YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/kevindayhoff Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1040426835

Sunday, March 08, 2009

Clinton gift gaffe in Russia

‘Overcharge’: Clinton Gift Gaffe Sends Wrong ‘Reset Button’ Message to Russia

March 6, 2009

http://www.clipsyndicate.com/publish/video/861250

An assistant shows the block with a red button marked "reset" in English an...

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton gave Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a 'reset button,' however the Russian-language label had the wrong word, and read 'overcharged' instead of 'reset.' (March 6)

For much more information, click here.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.9ca28ad2530b0d0029e1304762eca18f.8c1&show_article=1

http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=292513

http://clipsyndicate.com/publish/video/861250?wpid=1904

http://www.clipsyndicate.com/

SNL Makes Fun of Treasury Secretary Geithner's Desperation to Solve Banking Crisis
03-8-2009 8:46 am

Ohio School Receives 700 Applications For One Open Janitorial Job
03-8-2009 8:30 am

SNL Sketch Examines Electrode Rush Limbaugh Implanted in Michael Steele's Head
03-8-2009 7:14 am

Rahm Emanuel's Anger Issues Inspire SNL Dream of 'The Rock Obama'
03-8-2009 0:53 am

NY Daily News Video on Miley Cyrus Event Includes Creepy Interview With 'Fan'
03-8-2009 0:48 am

20090306 Clinton gift gaffe in Russia
Kevin Dayhoff www.kevindayhoff.net http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Murder in Moscow - Press criticism, KGB-style

Murder in Moscow - Press criticism, KGB-style by Stephen Schwartz 02/23/2009, Volume 014, Issue 22 Weekly Standard

See also: 20061017 SDOSM Anna Politkovskaya killed October 7, 2006

Vice President Joseph Biden has told the Europeans that the new administration wishes to "reset" relations with Vladmir Putin's Russia. But the January 19 slaying of two dissidents, 34-year-old human rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov and journalism student Anastasia Baburova, 25, on a Moscow street is one of several recent reminders that Americans cannot be comfortable in Putin's embrace.

Markelov, head of the Institute for the Supremacy of Law, may well have been murdered as a result of the release from custody, one week before, of Russian army colonel Yuri Budanov, who had been sent to prison for crimes he committed while serving in Chechnya. Markelov had been crucial to Budanov's 2003 conviction in the kidnapping, torture, multiple sexual assault, and murder of an 18-year-old Chechen girl, Elza Kheda Kungaeva. Budanov, although he admitted his guilt and was sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment, had benefited from an early release.

On the day he perished, Markelov delivered a statement to the press. Representing the family of the Chechen female victim, he accused the Russian authorities of improperly arranging for Budanov to be let go. He then walked to a metro station near the Kremlin with Baburova. The killer, wearing a ski mask, approached from behind and shot Markelov in the back of the head. Baburova pursued the shooter, who turned and fired into her forehead. She died several hours later.

Anticipating her graduation from journalism school, Baburova was working for the daily Novaya Gazeta, which has employed a distinguished roster of liquidated investigative journalists. Novaya Gazeta is co-owned by Alexander Lebedev, an ex-KGB official and billionaire turned political reformer, who purchased the ailing London Evening Standard on January 21, only two days after Baburova's death.

More: Murder in Moscow - Press criticism, KGB-style

20090223 Murder in Moscow Press criticism KGB-style by Schwartz

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/156vsrut.asp
Kevin Dayhoff www.kevindayhoff.net http://kevindayhoff.blogspot.com/

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Patrick J Buchanan: Blowback From Bear Baiting

Patrick J Buchanan: Blowback From Bear Baiting

August 16, 2008

One of the wonders of the internet is the ability and opportunity to gather more than one point of view about current events. If one were to take the time to read accounts of the Russo-Georgian conflict from non-Western news sourses, you get a point of view that is not being reported in the U. S. media.

Pat Buchanan’s version and take on the events appear to be much closer to what really happened in a series of events that began August 7, 2008 – when Georgia foolishly started military actions that were obviously arrogantly oblivious of the possible consequences.

And then when Georgia’s efforts began to go awry, they wanted to cry foul…

See also: 20080812 Stratfor: The Russo Georgian War and the Balance of Power

20080807 Russo-Georgian War, Military Intel Watch - Stratfor, Military National Security Intel Watch, World Middle East Georgia, World Russia

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Patrick J. Buchanan: Blowback From Bear-Baiting

08/15/2008

Mikheil Saakashvili's decision to use the opening of the Olympic Games to cover Georgia's invasion of its breakaway province of South Ossetia must rank in stupidity with Gamal Abdel-Nasser's decision to close the Straits of Tiran to Israeli ships.

Nasser's blunder cost him the Sinai in the Six-Day War. Saakashvili's blunder probably means permanent loss of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

After shelling and attacking what he claims is his own country, killing scores of his own Ossetian citizens and sending tens of thousands fleeing into Russia, Saakashvili's army was whipped back into Georgia in 48 hours.

Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to kick the Georgian army out of Abkhazia, as well, to bomb Tbilisi and to seize Gori, birthplace of Stalin.

Reveling in his status as an intimate of George Bush, Dick Cheney and John McCain, and America's lone democratic ally in the Caucasus, Saakashvili thought he could get away with a lightning coup and present the world with a fait accompli.

Mikheil did not reckon on the rage or resolve of the Bear.

American charges of Russian aggression ring hollow. Georgia started this fight -- Russia finished it. People who start wars don't get to decide how and when they end.

Russia's response was "disproportionate" and "brutal," wailed Bush.

True. But did we not authorize Israel to bomb Lebanon for 35 days in response to a border skirmish where several Israel soldiers were killed and two captured? Was that not many times more "disproportionate"?

Russia has invaded a sovereign country, railed Bush. But did not the United States bomb Serbia for 78 days and invade to force it to surrender a province, Kosovo, to which Serbia had a far greater historic claim than Georgia had to Abkhazia or South Ossetia, both of which prefer Moscow to Tbilisi?

Is not Western hypocrisy astonishing?

When the Soviet Union broke into 15 nations, we celebrated…

[…]

Read the rest here: Blowback From Bear-Baiting

20080815 Patrick J Buchanan: Blowback From Bear Baiting

Stratfor: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

Stratfor: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

August 12, 2008 1508 GMT

By George Friedman

Related Special Topic Pages

Crisis in South Ossetia
U.S. Weakness and Russia’s Window of Opportunity
The Russian Resurgence
Kosovo, Russia and the West

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted.

The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery.

This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power.

The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public.

They did that Aug. 8.

Let’s begin simply by reviewing the last few days.

On the night of Thursday, Aug. 7, forces of the Republic of Georgia drove across the border of South Ossetia, a secessionist region of Georgia that has functioned as an independent entity since the fall of the Soviet Union. The forces drove on to the capital, Tskhinvali, which is close to the border. Georgian forces got bogged down while trying to take the city. In spite of heavy fighting, they never fully secured the city, nor the rest of South Ossetia.

On the morning of Aug. 8, Russian forces entered South Ossetia, using armored and motorized infantry forces along with air power. South Ossetia was informally aligned with Russia, and Russia acted to prevent the region’s absorption by Georgia. Given the speed with which the Russians responded — within hours of the Georgian attack — the Russians were expecting the Georgian attack and were themselves at their jumping-off points. The counterattack was carefully planned and competently executed, and over the next 48 hours, the Russians succeeded in defeating the main Georgian force and forcing a retreat. By Sunday, Aug. 10, the Russians had consolidated their position in South Ossetia.

(click image to enlarge)

On Monday, the Russians extended their offensive into Georgia proper, attacking on two axes. One was south from South Ossetia to the Georgian city of Gori. The other drive was from Abkhazia, another secessionist region of Georgia aligned with the Russians. This drive was designed to cut the road between the Georgian capital of Tbilisi and its ports. By this point, the Russians had bombed the military airfields at Marneuli and Vaziani and appeared to have disabled radars at the international airport in Tbilisi. These moves brought Russian forces to within 40 miles of the Georgian capital, while making outside reinforcement and resupply of Georgian forces extremely difficult should anyone wish to undertake it.

The Mystery Behind the Georgian Invasion

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.

The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that the Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?

It is very difficult to imagine that the Georgians launched their attack against U.S. wishes. The Georgians rely on the United States, and they were in no position to defy it. This leaves two possibilities. The first is a massive breakdown in intelligence, in which the United States either was unaware of the existence of Russian forces, or knew of the Russian forces but — along with the Georgians — miscalculated Russia’s intentions. The second is that the United States, along with other countries, has viewed Russia through the prism of the 1990s, when the Russian military was in shambles and the Russian government was paralyzed. The United States has not seen Russia make a decisive military move beyond its borders since the Afghan war of the 1970s-1980s. The Russians had systematically avoided such moves for years. The United States had assumed that the Russians would not risk the consequences of an invasion.

If this was the case, then it points to the central reality of this situation: The Russians had changed dramatically, along with the balance of power in the region. They welcomed the opportunity to drive home the new reality, which was that they could invade Georgia and the United States and Europe could not respond. As for risk, they did not view the invasion as risky. Militarily, there was no counter. Economically, Russia is an energy exporter doing quite well — indeed, the Europeans need Russian energy even more than the Russians need to sell it to them. Politically, as we shall see, the Americans needed the Russians more than the Russians needed the Americans. Moscow’s calculus was that this was the moment to strike. The Russians had been building up to it for months, as we have discussed, and they struck.

The Western Encirclement of Russia

To understand Russian thinking, we need to look at two events. The first is the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. From the U.S. and European point of view, the Orange Revolution represented a triumph of democracy and Western influence. From the Russian point of view, as Moscow made clear, the Orange Revolution was a CIA-funded intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, designed to draw Ukraine into NATO and add to the encirclement of Russia. U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton had promised the Russians that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Union empire.

That promise had already been broken in 1998 by NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — and again in the 2004 expansion, which absorbed not only the rest of the former Soviet satellites in what is now Central Europe, but also the three Baltic states, which had been components of the Soviet Union.

The Russians had tolerated all that, but the discussion of including Ukraine in NATO represented a fundamental threat to Russia’s national security. It would have rendered Russia indefensible and threatened to destabilize the Russian Federation itself. When the United States went so far as to suggest that Georgia be included as well, bringing NATO deeper into the Caucasus, the Russian conclusion — publicly stated — was that the United States in particular intended to encircle and break Russia.

The second and lesser event was the decision by Europe and the United States to back Kosovo’s separation from Serbia. The Russians were friendly with Serbia, but the deeper issue for Russia was this: The principle of Europe since World War II was that, to prevent conflict, national borders would not be changed. If that principle were violated in Kosovo, other border shifts — including demands by various regions for independence from Russia — might follow. The Russians publicly and privately asked that Kosovo not be given formal independence, but instead continue its informal autonomy, which was the same thing in practical terms. Russia’s requests were ignored.

From the Ukrainian experience, the Russians became convinced that the United States was engaged in a plan of strategic encirclement and strangulation of Russia. From the Kosovo experience, they concluded that the United States and Europe were not prepared to consider Russian wishes even in fairly minor affairs. That was the breaking point. If Russian desires could not be accommodated even in a minor matter like this, then clearly Russia and the West were in conflict. For the Russians, as we said, the question was how to respond. Having declined to respond in Kosovo, the Russians decided to respond where they had all the cards: in South Ossetia.

Moscow had two motives, the lesser of which was as a tit-for-tat over Kosovo. If Kosovo could be declared independent under Western sponsorship, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions of Georgia, could be declared independent under Russian sponsorship. Any objections from the United States and Europe would simply confirm their hypocrisy. This was important for internal Russian political reasons, but the second motive was far more important.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. This didn’t mean that he wanted to retain the Soviet state; rather, it meant that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had created a situation in which Russian national security was threatened by Western interests. As an example, consider that during the Cold War, St. Petersburg was about 1,200 miles away from a NATO country. Today it is about 60 miles away from Estonia, a NATO member. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had left Russia surrounded by a group of countries hostile to Russian interests in various degrees and heavily influenced by the United States, Europe and, in some cases, China.

Resurrecting the Russian Sphere

Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things. First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region. Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.

The Russians knew the United States would denounce their attack. This actually plays into Russian hands. The more vocal senior leaders are, the greater the contrast with their inaction, and the Russians wanted to drive home the idea that American guarantees are empty talk.

The Russians also know something else that is of vital importance: For the United States, the Middle East is far more important than the Caucasus, and Iran is particularly important. The United States wants the Russians to participate in sanctions against Iran. Even more importantly, they do not want the Russians to sell weapons to Iran, particularly the highly effective S-300 air defense system. Georgia is a marginal issue to the United States; Iran is a central issue. The Russians are in a position to pose serious problems for the United States not only in Iran, but also with weapons sales to other countries, like Syria.

Therefore, the United States has a problem — it either must reorient its strategy away from the Middle East and toward the Caucasus, or it has to seriously limit its response to Georgia to avoid a Russian counter in Iran. Even if the United States had an appetite for another war in Georgia at this time, it would have to calculate the Russian response in Iran — and possibly in Afghanistan (even though Moscow’s interests there are currently aligned with those of Washington).

In other words, the Russians have backed the Americans into a corner. The Europeans, who for the most part lack expeditionary militaries and are dependent upon Russian energy exports, have even fewer options. If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn’t all too shabby at the moment. It has also compelled every state on the Russian periphery to re-evaluate its position relative to Moscow. As for Georgia, the Russians appear ready to demand the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili. Militarily, that is their option. That is all they wanted to demonstrate, and they have demonstrated it.

The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status. This is not something that just happened — it has been unfolding ever since Putin took power, and with growing intensity in the past five years. Part of it has to do with the increase of Russian power, but a great deal of it has to do with the fact that the Middle Eastern wars have left the United States off-balance and short on resources. As we have written, this conflict created a window of opportunity. The Russian goal is to use that window to assert a new reality throughout the region while the Americans are tied down elsewhere and dependent on the Russians. The war was far from a surprise; it has been building for months. But the geopolitical foundations of the war have been building since 1992. Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

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20080812 Stratfor: The Russo Georgian War and the Balance of Power