Dayhoff Soundtrack: Doug Tallman: Republicans licking chops at O'Malley-Ehrlich rematch

Monday, April 05, 2010

Doug Tallman: Republicans licking chops at O'Malley-Ehrlich rematch

I have always liked Doug Tallman’s work – and I especially like when a writer does his homework and gives me the numbers:

Republicans licking chops at O'Malley-Ehrlich rematch

But former governor's No. 1 hurdle could be mathematics

by Douglas Tallman Staff Writer Friday, April 2, 2010
http://www.gazette.net/stories/04022010/polinew194357_32549.php

ANNAPOLIS — For Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., November will be all about the math.

The putative Republican gubernatorial nominee has to either convert about 30 percent of Democratic voters to select the minority party. Or, he has to ensure a high turnout with seven of 10 occasional voters casting ballots for Ehrlich.

Those are the views of political observers contemplating this year's governor's race now that Ehrlich has announced he wants his old job back.

"I think the key for Ehrlich is being able to replicate the one thing he did in 2002, and that one thing is that he got 30 percent of the Democratic vote on Election Day," said Patrick Gonzales, president of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies of Annapolis.

Of Maryland's 3.4 million registered voters, more than 1.9 million — or 57 percent — are Democrats. The 902,000 Republicans account for 27 percent, while 479,000 unaffiliated voters represent about 14 percent.

"He can get 100 percent of independents, 100 percent of the Republicans, and if he only gets 15 percent of the Democrats, he loses," Gonzales said.

But the hitch to basing the campaign on snagging Democrats is money, said Donald Murphy, a lobbyist and former Republican lawmaker. It would take a lot of expensive advertising to convince a Democrat to vote Republican.

Instead, the campaign would need to go after "occasional" voters — voters who usually avoid midterm elections.

"People who are pissed and don't vote in those midterm elections are coming out this time," Murphy said. They'll be more likely to vote Republican because the party is not in power, and Ehrlich might be able to draw 70 percent of them, he said.

"What they need to do is initiate a ground game like Republicans have never seen before, and use the infrastructure of these tea parties and so forth and motivate people to come to vote," Murphy said.

Read Mr. Tallman’s entire article here: http://www.gazette.net/stories/04022010/polinew194357_32549.php

20100402 Gaz Rs licking chops MOM Ehrlich rematch Tallman Murphy