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Thursday, February 10, 2011

The Globe and Mail - DON TAPSCOTT: Tunisia, Egypt and the coming generational explosion

Tunisia, Egypt and the coming generational explosion

DON TAPSCOTT

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Friday, Jan. 28, 2011 http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/don-tapscott/tunisia-egypt-and-the-coming-generational-explosion/article1885446/?service=mobile

The anti-government uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt are featuring prominently in discussions here at Davos. And rightly so. The world is a powder keg as a demographic tidal wave of young people enter a jobless workforce and societies that need deep political and social reform.

Mubarak’s strongman-approach to revolts hardly surprising

U.S. officials backed rebels planning Egyptian uprising in 2008: WikiLeaks

In Ottawa, expatriate Egyptians add their voices to call for change

To me, 2011 is playing out in hyper speed. In my year-end forecast for 2011, I argued that “Worldwide generational conflict will grow. Around the planet young adults are asserting themselves in the workplace and in political arenas. Protests against entrenched governments will increase in frequency and severity.”

I have no satisfaction about how quickly this forecast is coming true. A new youth radicalization is under way for three reasons.

First, there is a massive generation of young people coming of age. Born between 1977 and 1997, the children of the baby boom in North America outnumber their parents. The echo is larger than the boom itself. In South America the demographic bulge is huge, and even bigger in Africa, the Mideast and Asia. A majority of people in the world are under the age of 30 and 27 per cent are under the age of 15.

Second, this generation is the first to grow up digital. They have been bathed in bits; computers, the Internet, and interactive technologies are a fundamental part of the experience of youth. I am a digital immigrant, while my children are digital natives. When I was growing up I was the passive recipient of broadcast television. When young people today are at a computer, they are interacting, searching, authenticating, remembering, collaborating, composing their thoughts, and organizing information. They interact with the media and know how to inform themselves and use technology to get things done.

Third, as they become adults, they are entering a world that is broken. Youth unemployment is high around the world. In Spain more than 40 per cent of young people are without work. In France the rate is higher than 20 per cent. Many failing institutions are in need of reform. Hosni Mubarak has been President of Egypt for almost 30 years, and most people think he wants his son to succeed him. In Tunisia, Ben Ali assumed the presidency through a bloodless coup in 1987. Driven out of power by a citizen revolt, he and his family were forced to flee the country. Throughout the Mideast there are undemocratic regimes with poor human rights records. Women want to be part of the work force but in many countries are denied full opportunities to do so.

Put these three factors together and there is a perfect storm brewing… http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/don-tapscott/tunisia-egypt-and-the-coming-generational-explosion/article1885446/?service=mobile

20110128 D Tapscott Tunisia Egypt the coming genl expl

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